Hybrid Technology: Where Is It Leading Us?

2008 ZENN Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle

If you're looking at your older car sitting in the driveway and wondering if your next car will be a hybrid, you're not alone. Senator Obama recently proclaimed the need for one million hybrids on the road by 2015. Toyota is much more optimistic: it says it wants to sell a million hybrids per year by 2011. Bob Lutz, from GM, wants to get you into a Volt as soon as they hit the market, and predicts a flood of PHEVs on the road in the coming years. Utility companies are working feverishly to make sure that electricity (and natural gas – if you like T. Boone Pickens) is the new oil. College kids are busy building solar cars that scuttle across the country, while those who like to look at the big picture see lots of hydrogen in our future.

So with all of this developing technology, where are we going, and how are we going to get there? In the grand scheme of things, the automakers have turned to hybrids to help them achieve the "alarming" leaps in CAFE standards that have been proposed by NHTSA and accepted by our legislators. In the short term, hybrid power trains are likely to play a prominent role. Will we still be waiting for hybrids in ten years? Probably not, although you're not likely to find too many conventional power trains remaining in the 2019 model year, either.

In the mid-term, PHEVs go a step beyond hybrids, but they also rely on electricity, generated mostly from coal-fired power plants. Right now, coal is cheap and plentiful, but it's not always easy to get. Mining is incredibly destructive to the environment. It also tends to destabilize the geographic area of the mine, as the most recent mine accidents have confirmed. The US still hasn't come to terms with nuclear power plants, and there is serious doubt about the nation's ability to generate enough electricity to put an electric vehicle in every driveway.

Natural gas is also available, but it's the "corn problem" relabeled. Instead of making people choose between food and fuel, NG-powered vehicles will make people choose between heat for their homes and transportation to and from work, while at the same time cranking up the cost of heat for the most vulnerable in society - such as the poor and elderly - many of whom don't even drive.

In the long term, the move to hydrogen will require significant investment in research and development, substantial advances in production and storage technologies, and new infrastructure to make hydrogen work. It isn't clear that we have the technology or the legislative moxie to work toward this end, no matter how much sense it makes in the long term.

The most likely solution? For right now, highly advanced battery technologies that may or may not be renewable or rechargeable, and combine the best of fuel cell operation with proven battery technologies. Another likely winner? Supercapacitors and ultracapacitors that have charge/discharge cycles in excess of 100,000 and can recharge in about five minutes.

In 2008, we're on the doorstep of some of the most exciting developments in automotive engineering, and our auto manufacturers are competing in the ultimate automotive X-Prize. The winning designs won't be known for years to come, but the ultimate winner will be the consumer. (Finally!)